Qui va gagner Derby County FC vs Cardiff City FC ?

Selon notre modèle IA, Derby County FC est le scénario le plus probable avec 41.07% de probabilité. Détail : Derby County FC 41.07%, match nul 22.83%, Cardiff City FC 36.1%. Indice de confiance algorithmique : 1.2/10.

Y aura-t-il plus de 2.5 buts dans Derby County FC vs Cardiff City FC ?

Notre modèle de Poisson bivarié donne 50.7% de probabilité pour Over 2.5 buts et 49.3% pour Under 2.5. Les xG (expected goals) attendus sont : Derby County FC 1.41 buts, Cardiff City FC 1.30 buts.

Les deux équipes vont-elles marquer dans Derby County FC vs Cardiff City FC ?

La probabilité Both Teams To Score (BTTS Oui) est de 53.4% selon notre modèle. Notre modèle suggère qu'une des deux équipes pourrait ne pas marquer. Forme récente : Derby County FC , Cardiff City FC .

Comment SportsData calcule-t-il ses pronostics football ?

SportsData combine le modèle Dixon-Coles (force offensive × vulnérabilité défensive adverse), le classement ELO (force relative long terme via ClubELO) et une distribution de Poisson bivariée pour les marchés Over/Under, BTTS et scores exacts. Les données sont issues des 10 derniers matchs de chaque équipe via football-data.org, actualisées chaque matin.

Derby County FC vs Cardiff City FC

Compared Statistics

Derby County FC (Domicile)

Cardiff City FC (Extérieur)

Based on goals, clean sheets and form of the last 10 matches

Algorithmic Probabilities

1 — Home

41.07% Odds 2.58 En attente

N — Draw

22.83% Odds 4.64 En attente

2 — Away

36.1% Odds 2.94 En attente

Special Markets

⚽ Number of goals — Over / Under 2.5

📈

Over 2.5

50.7%

📉

Under 2.5

49.3%

🎯 Both teams to score — BTTS

✅

BTTS Oui

53.4%

❌

BTTS Non

46.6%

🛡 Double Chance — Bet on 2 outcomes

63.9%

Derby County FC ou Nul

58.9%

Nul ou Cardiff City FC

Recommended

77.2%

Derby County FC ou Cardiff City FC

Exact Scores — Top 6

⭐ Top pick

1-0

10.9%

1-1

10.8%

0-1

10.2%

2-1

8.6%

1-2

7.9%

2-0

6.6%

Probabilities calculated by bivariate Poisson model (last 10 matches)

Expected Goals (average xG)

1.41

1.30

Derby County FC | Cardiff City FC

1700

ELO Derby County FC

Cardiff City FC ELO favourite

1760

ELO Cardiff City FC

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Derby County FC vs Cardiff City FC?

Our algorithm gives Derby County FC as the dominant scenario with 41.07% probability. Detail: Derby County FC win 41.07%, draw 22.83%, Cardiff City FC win 36.1%. Confidence index: 1.2/10.

Will there be more than 2.5 goals in this match?

Over 2.5 probability: 50.7% / Under 2.5: 49.3%. Expected xG: Derby County FC 1.41, Cardiff City FC 1.30.

Will both teams score?

BTTS Yes: 53.4%. Recent form: Derby County FC , Cardiff City FC .

How to interpret the confidence index?

The confidence index (out of 10) measures the quality of cross-referenced statistical signals — Dixon-Coles, ELO and Poisson. A score ≥ 7 indicates strong concordant signals. This match scores 1.2/10.

Statistical data for informational purposes only — no result guaranteed. 18+ · Responsible gambling.

AI Confidence Index

1.2 /10

Weak signal

Payout simulator

Which outcome do you want to bet on?

The % = our model estimate based on both teams' stats.

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AI advised stake

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If Win Derby County FC — you get back (stake + winnings)

— Net gain
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— You lose
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⚠️ Indicative simulation only — no result guaranteed. Please gamble responsibly.

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