Qui va gagner Charlton Athletic FC vs Derby County FC ?

Selon notre modèle IA, Charlton Athletic FC est le scénario le plus probable avec 44.9% de probabilité. Détail : Charlton Athletic FC 44.9%, match nul 22.57%, Derby County FC 32.53%. Indice de confiance algorithmique : 1.3/10.

Y aura-t-il plus de 2.5 buts dans Charlton Athletic FC vs Derby County FC ?

Notre modèle de Poisson bivarié donne 51% de probabilité pour Over 2.5 buts et 49% pour Under 2.5. Les xG (expected goals) attendus sont : Charlton Athletic FC 1.49 buts, Derby County FC 1.22 buts.

Les deux équipes vont-elles marquer dans Charlton Athletic FC vs Derby County FC ?

La probabilité Both Teams To Score (BTTS Oui) est de 53.2% selon notre modèle. Notre modèle suggère qu'une des deux équipes pourrait ne pas marquer. Forme récente : Charlton Athletic FC , Derby County FC .

Comment SportsData calcule-t-il ses pronostics football ?

SportsData combine le modèle Dixon-Coles (force offensive × vulnérabilité défensive adverse), le classement ELO (force relative long terme via ClubELO) et une distribution de Poisson bivariée pour les marchés Over/Under, BTTS et scores exacts. Les données sont issues des 10 derniers matchs de chaque équipe via football-data.org, actualisées chaque matin.

Charlton Athletic FC vs Derby County FC

Compared Statistics

Charlton Athletic FC

Derby County FC

Based on goals, clean sheets and form of the last 10 matches

Algorithmic Probabilities

1 — Home

44.9% Odds 2.36 En attente

N — Draw

22.57% Odds 4.70 En attente

2 — Away

32.53% Odds 3.26 En attente

Special Markets

⚽ Number of goals — Over / Under 2.5

📈

Over 2.5

51%

📉

Under 2.5

49%

🎯 Both teams to score — BTTS

✅

BTTS Oui

53.2%

❌

BTTS Non

46.8%

🛡 Double Chance — Bet on 2 outcomes

67.5%

Charlton Athletic FC ou Nul

55.1%

Nul ou Derby County FC

Recommended

77.4%

Charlton Athletic FC ou Derby County FC

Exact Scores — Top 6

⭐ Top pick

1-0

11.3%

1-1

10.6%

0-1

9.5%

2-1

1-2

7.4%

2-0

7.4%

Probabilities calculated by bivariate Poisson model (last 10 matches)

Expected Goals (average xG)

1.49

1.22

Charlton Athletic FC | Derby County FC

1700

ELO Charlton Athletic FC

ELO balance

1700

ELO Derby County FC

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Charlton Athletic FC vs Derby County FC?

Our algorithm gives Charlton Athletic FC as the dominant scenario with 44.9% probability. Detail: Charlton Athletic FC win 44.9%, draw 22.57%, Derby County FC win 32.53%. Confidence index: 1.3/10.

Will there be more than 2.5 goals in this match?

Over 2.5 probability: 51% / Under 2.5: 49%. Expected xG: Charlton Athletic FC 1.49, Derby County FC 1.22.

Will both teams score?

BTTS Yes: 53.2%. Recent form: Charlton Athletic FC , Derby County FC .

How to interpret the confidence index?

The confidence index (out of 10) measures the quality of cross-referenced statistical signals — Dixon-Coles, ELO and Poisson. A score ≥ 7 indicates strong concordant signals. This match scores 1.3/10.

Statistical data for informational purposes only — no result guaranteed. 18+ · Responsible gambling.

AI Confidence Index

1.3 /10

Weak signal

Payout simulator

Which outcome do you want to bet on?

The % = our model estimate based on both teams' stats.

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⚠️ Indicative simulation only — no result guaranteed. Please gamble responsibly.

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