Qui va gagner AS Roma vs ACF Fiorentina ?

Selon notre modèle IA, AS Roma est le scénario le plus probable avec 69.41% de probabilité. Détail : AS Roma 69.41%, match nul 20.16%, ACF Fiorentina 10.42%. Indice de confiance algorithmique : 5.1/10.

Quel est le meilleur pari sur AS Roma vs ACF Fiorentina ?

Notre algorithme identifie un value bet sur 1 Domicile à la cote 1.53 avec un edge de +4.05%. Un edge positif signifie que la probabilité réelle calculée par notre modèle dépasse celle implicite dans la cote du bookmaker — c'est la définition d'une opportunité statistique.

Y aura-t-il plus de 2.5 buts dans AS Roma vs ACF Fiorentina ?

Notre modèle de Poisson bivarié donne 36.8% de probabilité pour Over 2.5 buts et 63.2% pour Under 2.5. Les xG (expected goals) attendus sont : AS Roma 1.71 buts, ACF Fiorentina 0.46 buts.

Les deux équipes vont-elles marquer dans AS Roma vs ACF Fiorentina ?

La probabilité Both Teams To Score (BTTS Oui) est de 29% selon notre modèle. Notre modèle suggère qu'une des deux équipes pourrait ne pas marquer. Forme récente : AS Roma , ACF Fiorentina .

Comment SportsData calcule-t-il ses pronostics football ?

SportsData combine le modèle Dixon-Coles (force offensive × vulnérabilité défensive adverse), le classement ELO (force relative long terme via ClubELO) et une distribution de Poisson bivariée pour les marchés Over/Under, BTTS et scores exacts. Les données sont issues des 10 derniers matchs de chaque équipe via football-data.org, actualisées chaque matin.

AS Roma vs ACF Fiorentina

Compared Statistics

AS Roma (Domicile)

ACF Fiorentina (Extérieur)

Based on goals, clean sheets and form of the last 10 matches

Algorithmic Probabilities

1 — Home

69.41% Odds 1.53 +4.05%

N — Draw

20.16% Odds 4.21 -3.59%

2 — Away

10.42% Odds 6.05 -6.11%

Special Markets

⚽ Number of goals — Over / Under 2.5

📈

Over 2.5

36.8%

📉

Under 2.5

63.2%

🎯 Both teams to score — BTTS

✅

BTTS Oui

29%

❌

BTTS Non

71%

🛡 Double Chance — Bet on 2 outcomes

Recommended

89.6%

AS Roma ou Nul

30.6%

Nul ou ACF Fiorentina

79.8%

AS Roma ou ACF Fiorentina

Exact Scores — Top 6

⭐ Top pick

1-0

20.7%

2-0

16.7%

0-0

10.4%

3-0

9.5%

1-1

7.9%

2-1

7.7%

Probabilities calculated by bivariate Poisson model (last 10 matches)

Expected Goals (average xG)

1.71

0.46

AS Roma | ACF Fiorentina

1900

ELO AS Roma

AS Roma ELO favourite

1740

ELO ACF Fiorentina

Stats based on 38 match(es) for AS Roma, 38 match(es) for ACF Fiorentina

Frequently asked questions

Who will win AS Roma vs ACF Fiorentina?

Our algorithm gives AS Roma as the dominant scenario with 69.41% probability. Detail: AS Roma win 69.41%, draw 20.16%, ACF Fiorentina win 10.42%. Confidence index: 5.1/10.

What is the best bet on AS Roma vs ACF Fiorentina?

Our model identifies a value bet on 1 Domicile (odds 1.53), with an edge of +4.05% — the difference between our calculated probability and the bookmaker's implied probability.

Will there be more than 2.5 goals in this match?

Over 2.5 probability: 36.8% / Under 2.5: 63.2%. Expected xG: AS Roma 1.71, ACF Fiorentina 0.46.

Will both teams score?

BTTS Yes: 29%. Recent form: AS Roma , ACF Fiorentina .

How to interpret the confidence index?

The confidence index (out of 10) measures the quality of cross-referenced statistical signals — Dixon-Coles, ELO and Poisson. A score ≥ 7 indicates strong concordant signals. This match scores 5.1/10.

Statistical data for informational purposes only — no result guaranteed. 18+ · Responsible gambling.

AI Confidence Index

5.1 /10

Moderate signal

Payout simulator

Which outcome do you want to bet on?

The % = our model estimate based on both teams' stats.

My bankroll

€

AI advised stake

—

I stake 20 €

If Win AS Roma — you get back (stake + winnings)

— Net gain
if won

— You lose
if missed

⚠️ Indicative simulation only — no result guaranteed. Please gamble responsibly.

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