Based on goals, clean sheets and form of the last 10 matches
Probabilities calculated by bivariate Poisson model (last 10 matches)
AS Roma | ACF Fiorentina
Stats based on 38 match(es) for AS Roma, 38 match(es) for ACF Fiorentina
Our algorithm gives AS Roma as the dominant scenario with 69.41% probability. Detail: AS Roma win 69.41%, draw 20.16%, ACF Fiorentina win 10.42%. Confidence index: 5.1/10.
Our model identifies a value bet on 1 Domicile (odds 1.53), with an edge of +4.05% — the difference between our calculated probability and the bookmaker's implied probability.
Over 2.5 probability: 36.8% / Under 2.5: 63.2%. Expected xG: AS Roma 1.71, ACF Fiorentina 0.46.
BTTS Yes: 29%. Recent form: AS Roma , ACF Fiorentina .
The confidence index (out of 10) measures the quality of cross-referenced statistical signals — Dixon-Coles, ELO and Poisson. A score ≥ 7 indicates strong concordant signals. This match scores 5.1/10.
Statistical data for informational purposes only — no result guaranteed. 18+ · Responsible gambling.
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